jenni_blog | WORLD CUP 2014 QUALIFYING

This week most of the excitement in football has been centred around the Euro 2012 competition starting on June 8th. But at the same time, there is the intense battle going on for World Cup spaces (potentially 6) among South American teams. The battle will be long and hard, and very compelling. This weekend the matches are very interesting.

First, a little background. The 2014 World Cup will be in Brazil. Being the host country, Brazil does not need to compete for qualification. That leaves 9 teams who do. With an uneven number of teams competing, one team will get a 'bye' in each round of the qualifiers. This weekend, which is Matchday 5, that team is Paraguay. These are the matches that will be taking place:

Saturday, June 2nd:
Uruguay vs Venezuela
Bolivia vs Chile
Argentina vs Ecuador

Sunday, June 3
Peru vs Colombia

Why will it be so compelling this Matchday 5? Well, here are the standings:

1. Uruguay - 7 pts - +6 goal diff.
2. Argentina - 7 pts - + 3 goal diff.
3. Venezuela - 7 pts - 0 goal diff.
4. Ecuador - 6 pts - + 3 goal diff.
5. Chile - 6 pts - -3 goal diff.
6. Colombia - 4 pts - 0 goal diff.
7. Paraguay - 4 pts - -3 goal diff.
8. Peru - 3 pts - -2 goal diff.
9. Bolivia - 1 pt. - -4 goal diff.

It's fairly meaningless right now because there are so many more qualifying games to be played over the next almost two years. But there are early signs that Uruguay is pretty powerful, unbeaten and with a fairly large goal differential. Uruguay is #1 right now, but this weekend they will be playing the #3 team, Venezuela, who is equal on points with the Uruguayans, but 6 goals behind. If they tie, they will still be equal on points, but Uruguay won't want to do that because Argentina (#2) is playing Ecuador (#4) and if Argentina wins, then they will take over the #1 spot at least for now. However, if Ecuador beats Argentina, then Ecuador will have the #1 spot (if Uruguay and Venezuela tie), and they are sitting pretty on a not bad +3 goal differential at the moment.

What do I think? Uruguay vs Venezuela will be an extremely fascinating match. Anything could happen, but I'd expect Uruguay to win, with the team having no injury worries. But Argentina vs Ecuador is even more interesting, because while Argentina has a powerful offense, they are completely lacking in defense. What they might do is use some of their defensive midfielders in central defense, in order to try to keep possession better and move the ball forward mpre efficiently from out of the back. On the other hand, Ecuador is a big, powerful team with terrific defenders, balanced by some pretty nifty forward options this year. I could see an Ecuador win here, which will make things mighty interesting in the table. Ecuador and Argentina have the same goal differential at the moment, and only one point separates them in the table. With an Ecuador win and an Uruguay win, the standings would change to Uruguay #1 with 10 points and Ecuador #2 with 9 points. Of course, goal differential remains to be seen.

What about my favourite team, Colombia, who is struggling as usual (even though the players are so bloody talented) and who have hired a new coach since the last round? Colombia is #6 (4 pts) and will be playing Peru (#8) (3 pts) who beat the cafeteros in 2011's Copa America. However, I believe Colombia should win this match, even with a new coach, because Peru has some key players who are injured and may not feature. I've heard reports that Claudio Pizarro, Juan Vargas and Jefferson Farfan are all injured, but pre-match reports almost always lie. The players whom they say are injured and probably won't be playing always seem to be there whenever I am watching, so I never believe these reports anymore. I think they are just the teams trying to play head games with each other. If Colombia wins, that would be 7 points, and depending on goal differential, possibly moving into third place. However, if Peru wins, that spells disaster for Colombia, who will drop down to 7th place. In order to get into the World Cup, Colombia has to finish no worse in the table than #5 by early 2014.

Out of this group, the top four teams will automatically qualify for the World Cup. The 5th-placed team will have to play in a playoff against a team from (I believe) the CONCACAF group, which would probably result in a 5th team from South America qualifying. (Sorry, CONCACAF, but the South Americans are stronger, except maybe for Mexico, but for sure 'El Tri' will be there.) Therefore, in total there will be 6 teams from South America competing in Brazil. As a strong supporter of CONMEBOL, I think that's great. XD

Some training photos of some of the teams:

Team #1: Uruguay